Labour and workforce analysis

A region can show a large workforce on paper and still lack the people a project needs on a fixed date. DDA's labour market analysis looks below the total to find which workers have finished training, hold the right qualification, can work on the project, are free, and can reach the site.

01 The difference between a count and usable supply

A registration is one step. Completion is a second step, and certification is a third. A worker in the right trade can live in another region, have no housing near the project, work for another employer under contract, or become free after the phase that needs them.

DDA keeps occupation, qualification, geography, mobility, housing, demand, and timing as separate factors. When a combination of categories can count the same worker twice or hide a shortage, the categories stay separate.

02 The counts that mislead

Each public labour measure describes something close to supply and fails in its own way.

An apprenticeship registration count measures entry into training. It does not show completion, certification, or retention in the region. A census occupation count shows where people lived and worked at one date, and a census occupation is broader than a trade. An employment insurance claim count shows people out of work, and it excludes workers who leave the region or the trade. A job vacancy figure shows unfilled postings and misses firms that stopped posting.

DDA labels each count ACTUAL or PROXY, and states the gap between the count and the quantity the project needs.

Double counting is a second risk. One worker appears in the forecast for two projects that both plan to hire from the same pool. Concurrent projects draw on one supply. DDA builds the demand for all named projects in one view and removes the overlap.

03 Demand by trade and phase

A project's headcount is not one number. Construction demand peaks for a short period and falls. Operations demand is smaller and lasts for years. A schedule that shows average headcount hides the spike.

DDA divides demand by trade and by project phase. The commissioning phase can need a trade that no earlier phase used in large numbers. A shortage of 60 pipefitters on the critical path can delay the whole start of production, while many general labourers sit available. The total looks fine and the project misses its date.

04 Access, wages, and competing demand

Remote projects change what reaching the work means. Rotation schedules, camp capacity, and air or road access set how many workers a site can hold and how far they can live. A camp with a fixed bed count caps effective workers per month, whatever the regional supply says.

A worker can exist and still refuse the job. Supply depends on the wage. Other employers compete for the same trade, and they can outbid a project that offers less. DDA compares offered wages and conditions with the alternatives that the worker has.

Housing near a project can decide whether a qualified worker moves. In some towns, no unit exists at a price the worker can pay. DDA includes housing in the supply test when the project depends on relocation.

05 Training lead time

Training takes time. An apprenticeship in a trade takes several years, and each level needs work hours with an employer. A program cannot produce certified workers before the project gate, whatever its funding. DDA compares the time a training pipeline needs with the time until the fixed date. A pipeline that delivers workers after the date solves a different problem.

06 Public action and workforce

A training subsidy adds workers only when the constraint is training. When the constraint is housing, wages, or mobility, the subsidy moves trained workers between employers and adds none. DDA tests the constraint first. The public-action test in Economic and market analysis applies here.

Decision instrument: usable-supply decomposition
Illustrative figures

Supply falls at each test. The constraint to act on is the step with the largest loss that the project can change.

07 Labour market research plans

Rural and remote communities in British Columbia often need a labour market research plan to guide workforce planning and to qualify for provincial funding through programs such as the Rural and Remote Employment Initiatives Fund. DDA builds the evidence base for these plans: the workforce baseline, demand by sector and occupation, the training and mobility picture, and the register that shows the status of every figure. The plan then rests on evidence that a funder or a council can check.

08 What the work can produce

The work can produce a workforce baseline, a table of demand by trade and phase, a supply funnel, a training-pipeline assessment, a review of mobility and housing, supply and demand scenarios, an evidence register, an employer brief, and a monitor that tracks the indicators that show early if the gap closes or widens.

Read The trade gap hidden inside a workforce number for the Eskay Creek analysis. For concurrent projects and schedule exposure, see Mining and critical minerals. For training output and program timing, see Skills, training, and post-secondary.

09 Bring the workforce question

Send the workforce figure, the project schedule, the grant scope, the employer concern, or the dataset in use. DDA will find the first step where supply narrows and identify the missing evidence that can change the response.

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