Forestry and forest communities
The allowable annual cut sets a ceiling on harvest. It does not describe the fibre that a mill can get, at a price the mill can pay, from a tenure holder who will sell. DDA compares the fibre supply on paper with the fibre that reaches the mill gate, and traces what follows for the communities that depend on the mill.
01 The delivery chain
Fibre moves from the forest to the mill in stages. A timber supply review sets the allowable cut for a management unit. The government allocates that cut to tenure holders and to the public timber sales program. A tenure holder plans and builds roads, harvests the timber, and hauls logs. A mill sorts and processes them. Sawmill residue then feeds pulp and pellet plants.
A break at any stage stops the chain. A mill that loses its tenure, its road access, or its residue buyer changes its output even where the forest holds standing timber.
02 The evidence problem
The allowable cut is a ceiling. In many management units, actual harvest falls below it. The gap has causes: timber that is uneconomic to reach, wildfire and beetle losses, stand quality, and tenure holders who choose not to harvest at the going price. DDA reads harvest records against the allowable cut and reports the gap by unit.
The timber that the allowable cut counts differs from the timber that a mill uses. A mill needs a species, a log size, and a grade, delivered within a haul distance that keeps its costs viable. A supply of small or low-grade timber cannot feed a mill built for large logs.
Tenure decides who controls the fibre. A mill that owns no tenure buys logs at market prices from others, and it can lose supply when a tenure holder sells, closes, or redirects it. DDA maps tenure holders, mills, and their dependencies.
Employment counts give a second gap. Mill employment is a proxy for community dependence, and it understates the effect of closure on contractors, truckers, and suppliers. It also overstates dependence where workers commute from a larger centre.
Community tax exposure sits in the assessment roll. A major industrial class can carry a large share of a small municipality's taxation, and one closure removes it. DDA reads the roll and states the share.
03 Where it usually breaks
Delivered fibre cost breaks the mill. Haul distance, road maintenance, stumpage, and log quality set the cost at the gate. A mill can hold a tenure and lose money on every log.
Residue markets break the chain in the other direction. Sawmills that curtail reduce the residue that pulp and pellet plants need, and the loss spreads through the region.
Workforce breaks the restart. A mill that closes loses its trained crew. A restart needs them back, and they can move away or find other work in the time between.
Tenure transfers break community plans. A sale of a tenure can move harvest and jobs to another community. DDA tests if a plan for a forest community depends on fibre that another owner controls.
04 What the work can produce
The work can produce a fibre-supply analysis that compares the allowable cut, the actual harvest, and the fibre a named mill can get at a viable cost, a tenure and mill dependency map, a community exposure analysis that combines tax base and employment, a closure and restart analysis, a diversification test for a forest community, and an indicator set that shows early if fibre supply is tightening.
05 Connected capabilities and related thinking
This area uses Economic and market analysis, Land, infrastructure, and spatial analysis, and Fiscal and scenario modelling. For the fiscal effect of a closure, see Public finance and capital planning. For the labour side of a restart, see Labour and workforce analysis.
06 Bring the question
Send the mill, the timber supply review, the closure notice, or the community plan that depends on forestry. DDA will compare the fibre on paper with the fibre at the gate and identify what limits it.