Perspective
Major projects and workforce
5 minute read
The trade gap hidden inside a workforce number
A project can have enough workers on paper and still miss its date.
By David Doyle, Principal, DDA
A regional labour force of thousands can look like enough people for a mine. A workforce plan that starts from that number usually reaches a reassuring answer. The plan can be arithmetically correct and still miss the fact that controls the schedule.
The fact is usually small. It sits in one trade, in one phase, in one window of months. A project can hold every general labourer it needs and stop for lack of sixty certified people.
This piece follows one case, the Eskay Creek gold and silver project in northwestern British Columbia, and shows how a large workforce total falls to a small usable supply.
The total answers a different question
Eskay Creek is a past-producing mine that is being redeveloped. The permit sequence ran through early 2026, and the production target sits in the second quarter of 2027. Construction runs between those dates, and commissioning closes the schedule.
A workforce count for the region answers the question, how many people work in the area? The project needs the answer to a different question: how many people with the right certification can be on site in the right months?
Those two answers can differ by an order of magnitude. A count of construction workers in a region includes carpenters, labourers, operators, electricians, and dozens of other trades, and it includes people already committed to other employers. The project's schedule is a list of trades by month.
Follow the workforce through the filters
DDA breaks the total through a sequence of tests. Each test removes people, and each one uses evidence that can be checked.
The first test is the trade. A pipefitter and a general labourer do different work, and the schedule names the trades that each phase needs. The second test is qualification. Many trades require a certificate, and the certificate takes years to earn. A worker in a related trade cannot sign off on work that needs the certificate.
The third test is access. Eskay Creek lies far from the region's population centres. A worker who lives in a regional centre can reach the site through a rotation schedule and a camp, and the camp holds a fixed number of beds. The camp caps how many workers the site can hold in a month, whatever the regional supply says.
The fourth test is timing. A qualified worker who is free in the wrong year does not help. Other projects in the region run at the same time and hire from the same pool. The contested supply shrinks in the months when several projects peak together.
Each test is a filter. Together they turn a large regional total into a short list.
The gap sits on the critical path
Commissioning brings the plant to operation. It needs a trade that the earlier construction phases used less. In this analysis the commissioning phase needs about 90 pipefitters. The analysis found about 30 available in the region. The gap is 60 people, or 67 percent of the requirement.
That number matters because of where it sits. Pipefitting work sits on the path that leads to first production. Other trades can finish early and wait. The project cannot start without the piping tested and signed. A missing trade at that point delays the whole date, and each month of delay carries a cost.
The estimate of 90 depends on how much of the commissioning work needs pipefitters. DDA names that share as the weakest input in the analysis, because a change in the share moves the gap. The register records each input with its source and status.
The cost of the gap has two parts
A delayed start defers revenue and destroys some of it. The two need separation.
Deferral means the ore stays in the ground and the metal sells later. The revenue arrives, and its present value falls with the delay. Destruction means the project loses value that never returns: a missed price window, financing costs that accumulate, penalty terms, or a lost season. DDA models both. The deferral of gross revenue is a large number each month, and the loss in net present value is a smaller one. A public discussion that quotes only the first overstates the loss. A discussion that ignores the second understates it.
The financing terms matter here. A facility that carries interest each month converts delay into cost even before revenue changes.
What the analysis changes
A regional count leads to a program: train more workers, run a job fair, and recruit from outside the region. Those steps answer the question the count raised. They do not answer the trade question.
The trade analysis points to different actions. A project can secure the certified pipefitters early through an agreement with a union hall or a contractor. A training plan can target the specific certification, if the lead time allows. The project can resequence commissioning to reduce the peak. A regional partner can confirm which certified workers are free in the window. Each action reaches the constraint. A general hiring program does not.
Some of these actions have a lead time that runs longer than the window. DDA checks each one against the date. A training pipeline that delivers certified workers after the commissioning date solves a different problem.
What to take from it
A workforce total gives a ceiling. The usable supply lies far below it, and the difference decides the outcome. The method applies to any project with a fixed date and a trade that cannot be replaced.
Send DDA the schedule, the workforce plan, or the grant scope. We will divide the demand by trade and phase, compare it with the supply that the project can use, and find the first filter that removes the most people.
Source note: The Eskay Creek analysis is independent work built from public filings, provincial trades training data, and Statistics Canada labour data. The register behind it lists each figure with its source, release date, and status. Primary source: DDA, Trade-Specific Labour Shortage: Eskay Creek & Parallel BC Projects, effective 24 March 2026. All project-specific figures, source dates, trade allocations, supply estimates, and timing findings in this article come from that report. The report distinguishes disclosed project facts from modelled estimates. Recheck current sources before operational use.
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